Demand Management

Knowing the likely path of future sales performance is an essential part of any business plan. Yet most business plans include sales forecasts that are either purely self-fulfilling or, more dangerously, are based on hope rather than expectation. Our Demand Management service enables you to break that cycle. We use econometric modelling to quantify all the key drivers of past sales performance so you know the causes of recent sales trends, and then use that knowledge to tell you - reliably - what your future level of Baseline Sales will be during the plan period. You can then compare that with your business targets and if necessary take actions to fill any gaps before it is too late.

Our approach is generic and works across all industry sectors and for all types of goods and services.

How It Works

Using all available data sources we construct econometric models of past sales performance that quantify the extent to which sales have been influenced by differing driving factors and provide you with a regular Business Report that explains recent sales performance. An example Business Report for one sales category at a major UK airport is shown in Diagram 1 below.

These learnings are then used to predict, with a high degree of accuracy, future Baseline Sales - i.e. the level of sales you could reasonably expect to achieve if the market structure remains exactly the same as it is today and the key driving factors move as anticipated. This projection can then be compared with your budget sales plan so you can see how likely you are to achieve your targets. If this reveals gaps that need to be filled, adequate contingency plans can then be put in place. It also provides a Baseline against which to judge whether actual sales are under- or over-performing. This is shown in Diagram 2.


By using this approach, the risks of not achieving each year’s business plan are dramatically reduced. Actions can be taken in advance to head-off threats and exploit opportunities. Our modelling helped one major client see that there would be at least 15% growth in the size of the dry cell battery market in the coming 12 months - despite past market growth never having been more than 4% per annum. Because the model used causal factors to understand the drivers of sales, the model predicted that a known growth in the need for a particular type of battery would create strong market growth, with very little cannibalisation. This prediction was viewed with heavy scepticism by the Board but in the event the market grew 17% and because the company was prepared for this acceleration they were able to grow their market share by over 25% by satisfying this new demand more quickly than their competitors. These first year gains alone covered the cost of the modelling project by a factor of over 100:1. These results are not atypical.


To take advantage of this service requires three simple steps:

Unlike simple 'Dashboards', the RedRoute Business Report service delivers a rationalised assessment of what has caused recent sales movements, and the implications for the future.